ECONOMIC GROWTH OF PAKISTAN OVER THE LAST SEVEN DECADES
The
economy of Pakistan is the 24th largest in the world in terms of purchasing
power parity (PPP), and 42nd largest in terms of nominal gross domestic
product. Pakistan has a population of over 207 million (the world's
6th-largest), giving it a nominal GDP per capita of $1,629, which ranks 147th
in the world for 2016. Growth poles of Pakistan's economy are situated along
the Indus River;[32][36] the diversified economies of Karachi and major urban
centers in the Punjab, coexisting with lesser developed areas in other parts of
the country.[32] The economy has suffered in the past from internal political
disputes, a fast-growing population, mixed levels of foreign investment.
With
special economic zones (SEZs) being built under the China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC) project, it is an opportunity for Pakistan to move away from
commodity output by producing value-added goods in joint ventures with Chinese
firms and increase its exports. This way, Pakistan can have even faster income
growth.
Economic
growth in Pakistan and other countries is calculated as the percent change in
the GDP from one year to the next. It measures whether production has increased
or decreased, and by how much. Looking across many countries and over long
periods of time, the average rate of economic growth is about 2-3 percent per
year. That changes from year to year as the economy goes through recessions and
expansions. However, if an economy routinely grows at about 5 percent or more
per year, this is a substantial rate of economic growth. Economic growth of 7-8
percent is extraordinary.
FIRST FIVE DECADES:
Pakistan
was a very poor and predominantly agricultural country when it gained
independence in 1947. Pakistan's average economic growth rate in the first five
decades (1947–1997) has been higher than the growth rate of the world economy
during the same period. Average annual real GDP growth rates were 6.8% in the
1960s, 4.8% in the 1970s, and 6.5% in the 1980s. Average annual growth fell to
4.6% in the 1990s with significantly lower growth in the second half of that
decade.
Historically,
Pakistan's overall economic output (GDP) has grown every year since a 1951
recession. Despite this record of sustained growth, Pakistan's economy had,
until a few years ago, been characterized as unstable and highly vulnerable to
external and internal shocks. However, the economy proved to be unexpectedly
resilient in the face of multiple adverse events concentrated into a four-year
(1998–2002) period —
·
The Asian financial crisis;
·
Economic sanctions – according to Colin
Powell, Pakistan was "sanctioned to the eyeballs";
·
The global recession of 2001–2002;
·
A severe drought – the worst in
Pakistan's history, lasting about four years;
·
The post-9/11 military action in
neighboring Afghanistan, with a massive influx of refugees from that country.
In
search of a national identity, Pakistan has looked west to the parched deserts
of Saudi Arabia for cultural inspiration. Disregarding our rich South Asian
heritage, there have been plans to impose Arabic on schoolchildren; the
establishment of madressahs has been encouraged, often with Saudi funding.
These
multiple threads of enforced religiosity have produced an overarching
environment where reason and rational thought are rejected as western
inventions. To illustrate our backward trajectory, Hafiz Saeed — leader of the
Jamaatud Dawa, and a man with a $10m bounty on his head posted by the US
government for his alleged history of armed militancy — is setting up a
political party to contest the next elections. Unsurprisingly, he is using a
new version of Mr. Jinnah’s party, the Muslim League, as a vehicle for his
political ambitions.
The
growing fundamentalism in Pakistan is the result of the inescapable logic of
demanding a state in the name of religion: sooner or later, it will come to
dominate the social and political landscape. At Partition, we were a country of
around 32m; since then, we have multiplied like rabbits, and now number 200m.
Had so many Pakistanis been educated, we could have been a powerhouse of
creativity and productivity. As it is, millions live in abject poverty with no
access to schools, hospitals or clean drinking water. So while many
middle-class urban Pakistanis will celebrate our country’s 70th birthday with
much fanfare, millions of women and members of our minorities will have little
to cheer about.
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